bakkenboomorbust.com - bam-boom-bubble-bust-bump-bang
You Are On Search Bakken - $500 Million Dollar - The Williston Crossing Project Boom Or Bust Page
By the International Real Estate Company Stropiq - Announced 04/09/2015 - Completion 2018 - Shelved In 2017

   With "New Bold Leadership In The White House And In Bismarck" The Numbers Can Only Get Better
The Phrase Was Coined By Now North Dakota GOP Governor Doug Burgum - The Only Candidate For Governor To Endorse Trump
What Was It Doug Burgum Said They Are To Get Elected? - Money Squanders, Career Politicians & Good Old Boys
Yep, "New Bold Leadership" - Burgum Doesn't Say Or Do A Thing Since He Became One Of Them


This Page's Layout Guide
L to R - Top To Bottom
The Project Suits - Swiss - Fracking Fortune - 2015 Big Box Wars
Further
Oil Cost Efficiency "Stupid Money"
Arresting The Decline Malls - Life & Death

Bakken Oil Prices Deja Vu - 1982

Return To Bakken / ND - Real Estate Boom Or Bust

2017 - The Project Has Been Shelved
"You have all heard it before — 'I could not get my family to live here because it's missing something,'" he said.
"You know what that something is? It's retail and entertainment." - Terry Olin 2015
Olin made this statement and now he is going to build single family homes in Williston.

 Bakken's gas water ratios increase, oil declines, E&P debts increase. Houston Geological Society - Sept. 2017 - Bakken at 18:00

The 2017 Plan The Meadows They Upped The Permit Count By 100%

The Permits Are Under The Trade Name McGarry Stropiq Construction LLC - Patrick McGarry  Seems To Be Or Has Been Involved In Everything Bakken

“If we all really thought deeply about it, how often are all of us here in Williston doing our shopping on our computer, as opposed to going to the retail that does exist here and asking them to
order it for us?” he asked.
If you don’t buy everything from retailers we have or ask them to order it for you, you are validating what looks like an inevitable future.
We have become creatures who (would) just as soon have things brought to us as opposed to driving to the shop to see if they have it there.
Terry Olin 2017
That Handwriting Was Dripping Off The Walls Years Ago - Imagine If Stupid Money Had Bought The Hype! You Would Have A $500,000,000.00 Men's Suit - Enough Money For 62 More Wells!
In Minot Sears Closed, Herbergers Closed, Food Services Of America Closed - Home Depot Closed In Bismarck & Williston - Hundred's Of Available Commercial Locations In Minot, Williston & Dickinson
The Meadows North Of Williston -  Seems To Have Had Several Different Players - MVCI - Conner Murphy - Now Stropiq - Apparently
Started In 2013


The Williston Crossing Project 2014 - 2015 - It Would Be Great
Return To Top Of Page

Williston Crossing - 2014
The area’s population is also growing at a swift pace – nearly nine percent per year through 2017 – and will continue to grow to 159,000 over the next 10 years.
Williston Area Population 2015 - 32000
 "140,000 more wells to be drilled" over 40 years" According to Rolfstad, ( at $8,000,000.00 a well that is 1.1 trillion dollars, without inflation)
At The Current Rig Count of 54 - 06/08/2018 - At 8 Wells A Year Per Rig That Will Take 324 Years
140,000 More Wells

Pre Marketing Kuwait On The Prairie! Kuwait Production

Kuwait Produces 3,000,000 bbl's Per Day  From Some 2100 Wells
Bakken / ND Produces 1,162,071 bbl's per day From Some 14,457 Wells - Mar. 2018

Williston Crossing - 2015
Hold The Phone 04/11/2015  - The City Wants Control
"It would be very disappointing, not only to us, but to the citizens of Williston and the much broader region Williston Crossing would serve,
 if the idea is to kill our project solely for the protection of a small number of land developers with too much unsold inventory,” Olin said.
 “We like to believe our city officials are above that and our recent entitlement is not challenged."
Dont Those Keywords Speak Volumes. "To Much Unsold Inventory"

City Moves For The Extra Mile

1 Mile Zone To Go On
The Murphy Park Is Approved Another Development

"To Much Unsold Inventory"
And Reality On The Ground

Williston On realtor.com
Williston On loopnet.com

Williston Crossing - 2015
It Would Be Great - A Lot Of If's From Both Sides
Where do you find and house the labor to man these stores? Where can they afford to live?
Short Of Deep Water - The Bakken is some of the most costly oil mankind has ever gone after.

"We're the ones who will have to deal with this if it fails," Commissioner Martin Hanson said.
"It's a pie in the sky.  And I don't think it's nearly as visionary as it is delusional."
Very strong words from the commissioner and delusion seems to have played a large role in the development of tight oil
There are so many types of delusion - Heavens to Betsy - 
Define Delusion

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2015/04/09/3791888/500-million-development-on-willistons.html#storylink=cpy

Olin said the location was picked by experts to give the development the best chance of success,
 and that Williston Crossing will make the region a "cooler place to live."
"You have all heard it before — 'I could not get my family to live here because it's missing something,'" he said.
"You know what that something is? It's retail and entertainment."
Kind Of A Strange Knock That Ones Family Will Not Move To Williston.
The majority of people who came to the Bakken didn't come for retail and entertainment.
They came because of money and jobs. Its About Hydrocarbons.
Its not like you built a Freightliner or Apple Factory In Williston.

stropiq.com


Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2015/04/09/3791888/500-million-development-on-willistons.html#storylink=cpy

What Oil Slump - County OK's 500 Mil. Retail Williston Crossing

Who Is Terry Olin & Ellen Simone Weyrauch

Terry Olin

Ellen Simone Weyrauch
Terry Olin on zoominfo.com

Ellen Simone Weyrauch on zoominfo.com
Terry Olin at eastern property holdings

Ellen Simone Weyrauch at eastern property holding

The Suit & The Swiss & Fracking
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“How it is even possible that the 30,000 residents of Williston – the Bakken Shale’s de facto capital –
 have literally one store in which a men’s suit can be bought within 125 miles?” said Stropiq’s other Principal, Ellen Simone Weyrauch.
“In a region the size of Switzerland, Williston Crossing will make an immediate impact for residents, expanding their retail horizons exponentially.”
There is not alot of men that wear suits to work with hydrocarbons
Pre Affirm Market
The Bakken Is About 4 Core Counties For Production Lets Say 100 By 100 miles Is = 10000 Square Miles
They keep using the 100 mile barrier to Minot or Dickinson Half That & In that 10000 Square Miles Lets say 70000 people.
Which would be a reach considering what the US census bureau says - Williston 32000 - 
Continued Growth
In Switzerland their is 15940 Square Miles and 8 million people. Good Place To Sell Suits.
Switzerland - Data

They Produce Oil
 
3613 bbls a day
They Have Roughly
 
35 wells
Home Of
Transocean
Deepwater Horizon
Explosion Accident

And Apparently They Have Banned Fracking

Switzerland - No Fracking European Countries Banning Fracking

What Is The Mindset Of Switzerland
Swiss People


What Is It With Williston & Suits ? They Have A Walmart & You Can Order Suits Online From Walmart
Walmart Online Men's Suit Shop
& Online From Target
Target Online Men's Suit Shop
The Nearest Target Is Minot - So If Target In Minot Has Suits & JC Penney In Minot Has Suits
Then Williston JC Penney Has Suits & You Can Buy Suits Online & Second Hand Stores
Then It Would Seem The Suit Market Is Saturated
google search - number of men's suits being sold in North Dakota

Where Is There 50000 People In Williston ? Yes Jamestown ND Would Compare - No Target There
Williston Has A JC Penny & Walmart & Menard's Super Stores - What More Do You Need?
Stutsman County Population
2013 Census - Minot 46000 - Bismarck 67000 - Williston 20850 - Dickinson 26000
“This is a temporary hurdle, and eventually (oil) prices go back up. It’s a question of when and how much and the rate,” he said.
“It’s not this sense that people are heading out the door.”  
ND To 800,000 by 2020 Kevin Iverson, manager of the North Dakota Census Office
Fargo Is Revised To 228,000 In This Story 
Continued Growth

Greater Minot Population
73000
Greater Bismarck Population
126000
Greater Williston Population
32000
Greater Dickinson Population
30000

Fortune - It Would Be Great
Return To Top Of Page

Olin, the developer, says he’s undeterred by recent events: “Should we stop and wait until [the price of oil] is $60?
Is there some scenario in which it makes no sense? I think not.” He insists that his investors remain confident.
But if they get nervous, Williston Crossing will likely never be built.
Terry Olin and Ellen Simone Weyrauch on the site of Williston Crossing
Fortune March 2015

The Stropiq & JLL Teams on the 219-acre site of Williston Crossing
This Is Their Promo Photo & Words


 Big Retailers
Return To Top Of Page

John Menard May Be 3rd In Size To Home Depot & Lowe's - But He Is #1 In ND
He Choose To Stay In The Thick & The Thin.  And He Has Cash
He Is A Private Held Company - Not Publicly Traded
His New Store In Williston Opened The Summer Of 2015
Menard opened his first hardware store in 1972. As of 2014, his company owned 287 Menard's stores.
As of 2014 Menard's grossed an estimated $8.3 billion in sales. Menard had a net worth of $8.6 billion in 2013,
according to the Forbes 400, and is the richest person in Wisconsin.

Net Worth Of John Menard

Home Depot Opens Williston ND 2014 Home Depot Closes Williston ND 2016

Home Town Not Home Depot homedepotsucks.org

On Hold No Longer
Development Tabled

How Home Improvement  Store Founder John Menard Became The Richest Man In Wisconsin
And What He Sacrificed To Do It
Big Money & The Big Box Wars



 Further
Return To Top Of Page

It Just Gets Further & Further Spread Out




 Oil Cost Efficiency
Return To Top Of Page

 Bakken's gas water ratios increase, oil declines, E&P debts increase. Houston Geological Society - Sept. 2017 - Bakken at 18:00

“While oil prices may cause temporary caution, there is a "cost efficiency of oil production"
 in this region along with sheer supply that makes investments sustainable."
The Ebb & Flow

Arthur Berman: Why Today's Shale Era Is The Retirement Party For Oil Production
At 11:45 - "Recent Study For A Client In The Core - The Sweet Spot Of The Bakken - You Need About $83.00 BOE To Break Even"
 
February7th - 2015

The artificial shale boom, slumping iron ore prices, and the political importance of chicken
Interview With Arthur Berman On The Business News Network 4/10/2015

The first step to price recovery is the severing of capital supply to companies that could not fund their operations
from cash flow when oil prices were more than $90 per barrel. If this does not happen, we could be in for a long period of low prices.

The Oil Price Collapse Is Because Of Expensive Tight Oil

These companies out-spent cash flow by 25%, spending $1.25 for every $1.00 earned from operations. Only 3 companies
–OXY, EOG and Marathon– had positive free cash flow. Total debt increased from $83.4 to $90.3 billion from 2013 to 2014.
Debt must be continually re-financed on increasingly  poorer terms because it can never be repaid from cash flow
 by many of these companies. The U.S. E&P business has, in effect, become financialized: investment in this class
 of company has become the sub-prime derivative of the post-Financial Crisis period. There is no performance requirement by
investors other than the implicit need to maintain net asset values above debt covenant trigger thresholds.

These terrible financial results reflect a year when average WTI oil prices were more than $93 per barrel.
First quarter 2015 earnings will make these results look good.


Table 1. Full-year 2014 earnings data for representative tight oil exploration and production companies.
Dollar amounts in millions of U.S. dollars. FCF=free cash flow; CF=cash flow; CE=capital expenditures.
Source: 2014 10-K filings, Google Finance and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
A Great thanks to Arthur Berman & His Experience & Insight Into The Hydrocarbon Industry
artberman.com

"Stupid Money"
Return To Top Of Page

Saudi Arabia's Oil-Price War Is With Stupid Money
Some rationalize the negative free cash flow as an expansion of capital base that will result in future profits.
The following table shows that over the past 4 years, tight oil negative cash flow increased and has reached a cumulative of
more than -$21 billion for the representative companies. Almost half of that negative cash flow took place in 2014.


How many times do you hear it?  It goes on all day long  Everyone knows everything
And no one's ever wrong  Until later...
Show Me Dont Tell Me

Half of the 41 fracking companies operating in the U.S. will be dead or sold by year-end
Because of slashed spending by oil companies, an executive with Weatherford International Plc said.
Dead Or Sold

Schlumberger 20,000 Laid Off
Schlumberger Layoffs
Halliburton 9,000 Laid Off
Halliburton Layoffs
Baker Hughes 10,500 Laid Off
Baker Hughes Layoffs

Slide from Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard’s at the Scotia Howard Weil 2015 Energy Conference.
Schlumberger Presentation - March 2015


Arresting The Decline
Return To Top Of Page

"The hard reality is this: propping up zombie oil companies is only going to make the downturn last longer."
Who Should You Call To Arrest Decline
What A Irony. Arresting The Decline. Long before oil price went in the toilet, Decline was everywhere. No one spoke much about her.
They seemed to deny that she was everywhere. They just kept feeding her and giving her more and more to decline.
They shrugged her off in quarterly conference calls. Experts and everyday people with calculators warned of her. Wrote of her, charted her.
Respected her. Warned of the day she would overtake their enabling addiction of drilling. Tryed to come up with ways to shut her down,
That just don't work in tight oil. So to have her arrested, who do you call? The police, the E&P's, the FBI, the NDIC, the TRRC, the media,
the banks, Wall Street. Probably all of the above. It will be difficult, very difficult to bring her in, she is lurking at every lease, behind every
pump, in every production tank. She is in the paper work, the permits, the earnings, she is the thought that crosses the mind and is brushed off.


Updated When All Three Report Same Month Data
Bare In Mind - Increased Production Only Seems To Decrease Price

The Combined Production Of The Three Largest Play's - Bakken - Eagle Ford - Permian Basin - Current August 2018
4,268,756  bbl's oil a day - Divided by (2008 to Current August 2018) 118,622 Wells - Is 35.9 bbl's oil a day per well. 118,622 Wells Times An Estimated $8.5 Million Per Well Is $1.1 Trillion Dollars

2018 Combined Production Of The Big Three - Bakken / ND - Permian Texas - Eagle Ford Texas - YTD August 2018  - Up 339,598 Barrels A Day
Year To Date August 2018 - Bakken Production Is Up 108,660 bbl's Per Day - 585 New Wells
Year To Date August 2018 Permian - Production Is Up 238,970 bbl's Per Day - 6197 New Wells

Year To Date August 2018 Eagle Ford - Production Is Down (-8,032) bbl's Per Day - 1933 New Wells 
  As Of August 2018 - A Combined Count Of 8,712 New Wells x $8.5 Million A Well Is $74.1 Billion
A Average BBL Per Day Well Production Of - 38.9 bbl's Per Day - Not Good

2018 New Well Average Of The Big Three Of 35.9 bbl's Per Well - You Would Need To Add 224 Wells Today To Arrest Eagle Ford Decline - (-8,032)
  If You Could Bring Them Online Today - 224 x $8.5 Million A Well Is $1.9 Billion

 What Are They Thinking !

The Problem With Oil Prices - They Are Not Low Enough

Bakken/North Dakota Average1 Permian Basin Average1 Eagle Ford Average

Bakken/ND - Permian - Eagle Ford - Combined Production - 2008 To Current 2017
In 2015 You Did Not See Candle Over Candle Growth - Nothing But Cross - Recross - Test - Of The 3.4 - 3.5 Mark - Doji - Doji - Vroooooooooooooom
2015 Ended As A Hammer - 2016 Ended As A Engulfing Bear Candle - 2017 Is A Doji Or Another Hammer





The Life & Death Of The American Shopping Mall
Return To Top Of Page

To critics, investing millions of dollars in a shopping center during the 21st century may seem like a loser's bet.
Since 2010, more than two dozen enclosed malls have shuttered and 75 others are on the brink of failure, according to Green Street Advisors.
Other industry calculations estimate that about one-third of the 1,200 enclosed malls built in the U.S. are dead or endangered.

The Life & Death
Doubling Down

Plains Marketing - Oil Prices Market Price For
Bakken Sweet Crude
Return To Top Of Page

Flint Hills Resources - Oil Price


Why Shale (Tight) Oil's Safety Net Is About To Expire Regulator Warns Of Lending To E&P's

Olin, the developer, says he’s undeterred by recent events: “Should we stop and wait until [the price of oil] is $60?
Thats A Really Big & Good Question! - Maybe At Least Till Bakken Oil Stays Above $60.00

Saudi Arabia Has a Solution to the Global Oil Glut Problem - 04/24/15
 
"Raise output to near-record levels and then pump even more."
The Solution


Five Year Average
2013 to 2017 - Low $36.28 - High $67.17
Ten Year Average
2008 to 2017 - Low $39.24 - High $78.45
Fifteen Year Average
2003 to 2017 - Low $33.78 - High $70.13

Bakken Sweet Crude Futures - Flint Hills Resources Futures - Years 2000 To 2017
Bakken Sweet Has Only Traded & Closed In A Year Time Frame Above $60.00 - Four Of The Past Eighteen Years


Olin, the developer, says he’s undeterred by recent events: “Should we stop and wait until [the price of oil] is $60?
Thats A Really Big & Good Question! - Maybe At Least Till NYMEX - WTI Oil Stays Above $60.00


Five Year Average
2013 to 2017 - Low $48.19 - High $79.51
Ten Year Average
2008 to 2017 - Low $52.90 - High $93.95
Fifteen Year Average
2003 to 2017 - Low $49.38 - High $85.21

NYMEX - WTI - /QM - Light Sweet Crude Futures - Years 2000 To 2017
WTI Has Only Traded & Closed In A Year Time Frame Above $60.00 - Eight Of The Past Eighteen Years


Bakken Decline Production & Price Chart For The Past 10 Years


“ Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful ” - Warren Buffett


A Great Thank You To Rune Likvern At fractionalflow.com  -  For The Amazing Data He Compiles

A Great Thank You To Art Berman At artberman.com  - For The Insight Of His Data

A Great Thank You To Enno Peters At shaleprofile.com  -  Visualizing US Shale (Tight Oil) Production



Question Is


We're setting sail To the place on the map from which no one has ever returned
Drawn by the promise of the joker and the fool By the light of the crosses that burn

Oh, save me. Save me from tomorrow I don't want to sail with this ship of fools

Ship Of Fools



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